What is a Tipping Point?
A tipping point is a when a small change in a system has a big impact. This small change is a trigger which moves the system beyond a threshold (a tipping point) resulting a in a large scale qualitative change in how the system looks or functions. The system transitions from one stable state to another.
Key Features of a Tipping Point
Three qualities are associated with tipping points (Milkoreit et al., 2018):
- Abruptness – the change is rapid.
- Self-perpetuation – once set in motion, the change continues until a new stable state is reached.
- Irreversibility – the change is difficult or impossible to reverse.
Sources of Tipping Point Behaviour
Forces act on systems and create change. These can be reinforcing feedback loops which amplify change or dampening / balancing feedback loops which suppress change. Reinforcing feedback is called positive feedback, whilst balancing feedback is called negative feedback. This doesn’t reflect a moral judgement; it reflects whether the feedback is increasing or decreasing the change or behaviour in the system. It’s a mathematical, quantifiable measure.
Stable States
Systems usually have a stable state or attractor that they return to after disruption or being perturbed. We all know that feeling – something can unsettle or perturb us, shift us from a stable state before we return back to equilibrium. Similarly, if you tip back on your chair a little, it will swing back to a stable state.
Systems may have bi-stability or multi-stability. They may be stable in two states (bi) or many (multi). You may only feel stable in two states: standing up and lying down. If you’re good at yoga, you might feel stable in a range of states – standing on one leg in tree pose or in a headstand!
Hysteresis
Sometimes the state of a system depends on its history – hysteresis. This can make it much harder – perhaps impossible – to return it to its former state. The Greenland Ice Sheet is a legacy of the last ice age. It exists because of previous (very cold) temperatures. This creates path dependence – past events constrain future possibilities. Global warming could tip the Greenland Ice Sheet into irreversible loss because the ice sheet would not regrow at today’s temperatures or even preindustrial temperature levels. Temperatures would have to reduce substantially to create the conditions for this to happen. They would have to return to historic levels.
Cascades
Another source of tipping can be a cascade effect – a domino effect or chain reaction – where one small change in a subsystem causes further change in another subsystem, resulting in a larger change in the wider system. For example, the extermination of wolves from Yellowstone National Park triggered a cascade that changed the whole ecosystem. Their reintroduction in 1995 tipped the system back through another cascade, for example, their presence puts pressure on elk to keep moving which means they don’t overgraze the alder and it has the chance to regrow. Impacts are felt from one species to another to another.
Behaviour can cascade across agents within one species through a process called contagion. Just like head lice, behaviours can quickly spread. Think loom bands or fidget spinners. One moment your child had never heard of them. Next minute, they couldn’t live without one. Or like saying literally for like literally no reason. It’s a behaviour that can quickly spread. Literally.
Complex Systems
Complex systems consist of lots of interconnected parts that interact with each other giving rise to feedback loops. Some systems can change in response to changing conditions in a way that enhances their function. Their dynamic and responsive. Because of this they are called complex adaptive systems. They are capable of adapting to change.
Earth Systems
The Earth system (Lenton, 2016) is the complex system at the surface of the planet Earth made up of:
- the atmosphere
- hydrosphere (i.e. water, including oceans and freshwaters)
- cryosphere (i.e. frozen areas, including ice sheets)
- biosphere (living organisms)
- lithosphere (land, soils, sediments and parts of the Earth’s crust)
The climate system is the parts of the Earth system that govern the climate at the surface of the Earth.
Tipping points can occur both in the Earth system and the climate system. Both refer to large scale and self-perpetuating changes. Key climate tipping points occur beyond a particular threshold level of global warming, for example, the irreversible loss of the Greenland Ice Sheet which would ultimately lead to around seven metres of global sea-level rise. Earth system tipping points refer to tipping points in the wider Earth system (not associated with the climate), for example, levels of oxygen dissolved in the ocean.
Ecosystems are complex – sometimes adaptive – systems of living organisms. They are smaller in spatial or geographical scale than the biosphere which can be thought of as a ‘global ecosystem’. Imagine the biosphere as a jigsaw puzzle and ecosystems as a single piece of that jigsaw.
Ecological tipping points occur when changes to a biological population become self-perpetuating beyond a threshold. They can be triggered by natural or human-induced disturbances, such as habitat loss, species invasions, pollution and climate change. For example, increased fires or grazing can trigger a tropical woodland to tip into a savanna.
Social Systems
Social systems are complex – often adaptive – human systems, which have rich dynamics (Parsons, 2010) and deeply entangled webs of connections, both formal and informal. Think of all the systems and groups you belong to or have interacted with throughout the course of your life: your family; your school, college or university; your neighbourhood; sports and social clubs; your workplace; online communities; your nation with its political, legal and economic institutions. Each of these systems has rules, laws or cultural expectations associated with it that shape your behaviour, from how greet another person – with a handshake, a bow or a kiss – to how much interference from the government you expect and tolerate.
Although we often overlook this, our social systems operate within and are dependent upon ecological and Earth systems (Otto et al., 2020; Eker and Wilson, 2022; Winkelmann et al., 2022).
Social systems have stable states (attractors) that resist change. They can exhibit path dependency and hysteresis. There are deep-rooted cultural norms within societies which can be hard to change. Slavery was considered normal and socially acceptable across many cultures for thousands of years.
Social Tipping Points
Social systems can change. Just like ecological systems, they can cross tipping points – social tipping points. It is hard to imagine reverting to a society where owning another person is socially acceptable – although this is not impossible.
Sometimes tipping points are triggered by laws – the adoption of wearing seatbelts in the UK and the ban on smoking in public places. Change can also occur through the diffusion of innovation where new ideas, products or services spread through a social system over time. Think of the adoption of television, cars, PCs, the internet or mobile phones. A critical mass can be reached where the behaviour of one more person causes everybody else to adopt a new innovation.
Similar dynamics underlie tipping points related to political protests, riots or revolutions, although, it is not uncommon for social systems to revert to their former stable state. Communities may also tip into a state of anomie. Not to be confused with bonhomie – anomie is the breakdown of social norms, social ties and social reality.
Humans have an unrivalled capacity to develop tools and technology – ships, factories, cars, bombs, aeroplanes, computers. This means we have greater scope than any other species to impact wider global systems. Industrialisation and globalisation have turbo-charged the pace and scale at which we impact the natural world.
Yet – perhaps uniquely – we are conscious, self-reflective beings. This gives us greater agency – the capacity to reflect on the impacts of our actions and to steer a new course should we choose to.
Types of Social System
There are four key types of social system:
- Socio-behavioural systems – social norms, behaviours and lifestyles, communities and their cultures, and institutions.
- Social-ecological systems – where humans interact with their environment, such as, a fisheries.
- Socio-technical systems – where we interact with technology for a common goal, for example, transport networks, energy or healthcare systems.
- Social-ecological-technological systems – where all the components above are combined, for example, food systems.
There are corresponding tipping points for each of these systems. An example of a social-ecological-technological tipping point is the ‘Green Revolution’ in agriculture in the 1960s and 1970s which led to a reduction in poverty through greater crop yields from genetic selection and the use of fertilisers. An unforeseen consequence of the Green Revolution were ecological impacts of an even more industrialised agricultural system – climate change, water use, biodiversity loss and climate change – making the Green Revolution seem somewhat paradoxical. Not so green anymore…!
Positive and Negative Tipping Points
In the Global Tipping Points report, these terms are used as normative, value-based labels. So, a positive tipping point is one that is predominantly beneficial for humans and the natural systems we depend on, and a negative tipping point is one that is predominantly detrimental for humans and the natural systems we depend upon.
This value-driven use of positive and negative (in the context of tipping points) should not be confused with the mathematical use of positive and negative in relation feedback loops where it means increasing or decreasing the change or behaviour in the system.
Of course, these value based labels are highly complex and contested and some people – such as those with vested interests – may have different ideas of what constitutes a positive outcome. There will also be diverse views on the extent to which human suffering and environmental degradation is acceptable or necessary.
Nevertheless, here, positive tipping points are defined as those that accelerate change which reduces the likelihood of negative Earth system tipping points, and/or increases the likelihood of achieving just social foundations. The aim is to ensure a sustainable future within safe and just Earth system boundaries as illustrated by the Planetary Boundaries and Doughnut Economics models (Gupta et al., 2023; Rockström et al., 2023; Raworth, 2017).
Resilience
Resilience is the capacity of a system to resist (or absorb) change and continue to function in its present state. An early warning sign of a tipping point is when it loses resilience – the system finds it harder to return to its stable state (attractor) after being perturbed or disturbed. Many people when they’ve had a disturbed night’s sleep will find it easier to lose their temper – they’re closer to a tipping point as they lack the resilience to absorb irritation or annoyance.
Resilience may be used in a value-based or normative way. For example, in development practice, the resilience of social and social-ecological systems is presented as a desirable thing. But of course, it depends what the steady state of the system is as to whether we view its resilience as good. An oppressive, totalitarian regime may be very resilient and hard to overthrow. This does not make it desirable for those who are being oppressed.
Resilience can be quantified – measured with numbers – as the rate of recovery from disturbance. So we can use it as an early indicator of a tipping point. Loss of resilience illustrates that the damping (negative) feedback in a system – the forces that act to keep the system in its current state – are weakening and instead strong amplifying positive feedback is taking over and pushing the system towards a tipping point.
This is called critical slowing down. As the system approaches a tipping point, a smaller perturbation can trigger a larger change. If you have one bad night’s sleep, you might be able to tolerate a certain amount of irritation without reaching tipping point (losing your temper). But imagine sleepless night after sleepless night. Now you are less resilient and only a small perturbation can trigger a tipping point in your emotional equilibrium!
Loss of resilience can be measured by changing statistical indicators of a system’s behaviour (Scheffer et al., 2009). This means we can measure how close to a tipping point a system is.
This could be a good thing if we want the system to change (the oppressive totalitarian regime or an economic system reliant on fossil fuels) or a bad thing if we don’t want the system to change (the collapse of our ecosystems). Signs of negative tipping points – ones that are detrimental to humanity and the Earth systems we rely on – are referred to as early warning signals. Signs of positive tipping points – ones that are beneficial to humanity and the Earth systems we rely on – are referred to as early opportunity indicators.
Leverage Points
One of the purposes of mapping and understanding systems is to understand leverage points – the places you can intervene in the system to have maximum impact to bring about a desired outcome. This is such an important idea, I have written a post dedicated entirely to leverage points.
Enabling Conditions
Enabling conditions are conditions in the system – the context – that allows a tipping point to be triggered (Lenton et al., 2022). Enabling conditions for positive tipping points might be economic (taxes, subsidies or price reductions due to cheaper technology) or social (it becoming less socially acceptable to use fossil fuels or engage in consumerist behaviour).
Typically enabling conditions will create feedback processes between policy, technology and behavioural change (Smith, 2023; Fesenfeld et al., 2022). There may be demand-side solutions – changing consumption patterns and changes to what people want or accept. There are also supply-side solutions, such as, technological innovations and their diffusion. Of course, there is an interplay between these two facets.
Find Out More
You can read about the key concepts related to tipping points in more detail here: Global Tipping Points | Key concepts (global-tipping-points.org)
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