Wylder Earth

Tipping points are thresholds in a system where a small change makes a big difference to how the system functions. You may have heard of tipping points in relation to earth systems, such as, coral reefs, the Amazon rainforest, the Antarctic ice sheets. Scientists can measure how close we are to tipping points in these systems. And we’re close…

Tipping points are typically characterised as leading to change that is self-perpetuating (can’t be stopped once it’s set in action…), abrupt (everything might seem okay one minute, the next it’s really not… like a cliff edge…) and irreversible (we can’t refreeze the ice sheets…)

Crossing these earth system tipping points (ESTP) can be thought of as negative. Not in a mathematical sense. But in a subjective (or normative) sense. Most people want to live in a world that is safe and stable. We depend on earth systems so disrupting them suddenly and irreversibly will lead to a whole heap of trouble for us and our children.

Positive tipping points are where we cross a threshold in social systems that create a widespread, transformative change across the system in a way that brings about outcomes we’d typically want to see – positive change. This might be changes in values, attitudes, behaviours. There are many examples of widespread social change in history… the end of slavery, women working, the uptake of new forms of transport (steam ships, cars, then planes), the digital revolution – the uptake of the personal computer, mobile phone, the internet, social media…

So, here’s a key point: positive tipping points don’t just happen. They need to be triggered. There needs to be a concerted effort to make them happen. Policies, education, space for experimentation…. They’re a bit like children in this sense. If your children are anything like mine, they probably need a bit of encouragement to brush their teeth, get dressed, get ready for school, do their homework… You have to put in a bit of work to reach a tipping point where those behaviours happen without any input from you.

This post looks in detail at what positive tipping points are and how they can be triggered. It’s based on the latest research compiled by the University of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute Global Tipping Points Report. Let’s start by understanding what exactly positive tipping points are and what they’re not.

Similarities Between Earth System Tipping Points (ESTP) and Positive Tipping Points (PTP)

They’re both tipping points for a reason – they’ve got lots of qualities in common. Because any system – as long as it’s complex and able to adapt – can have a tipping point (Lenton et al., 2022). Whether it’s an earth system or a social system – an ocean or the weird social system you get in the school playground. The key concept is the same: systems can reach a threshold when just a little extra input triggers a disproportionately large, often abrupt and irreversible change, which leads to a qualitatively different system state (Lenton, 2008; Milkoreit, 2018).

Earth system tipping points and positive tipping points share these features:

• The systems have stable states that are resistant to change.
• There are feedback loops in the systems. These can be reinforcing (positive) or dampening (negative). Reinforcing (positive) feedbacks speed up change in a system. Dampening (negative) feedbacks slow change down.
• N.B. don’t confuse the use of positive and negative here with positive tipping points. Positive/negative feedbacks are mathematical terms. They can be given a numerical values. Positive tipping points is a subjective or normative term that means (in our opinion) the system change creates a better outcome for humanity.
• The potential for cascades where one outcome triggers another, like dominoes (Lenton, 2020).
• A loss of resilience or stability when nearing a tipping point. You can use this to help you know when you’re close to a tipping point. Either as a warning (if the tipping point is undesirable) or as an indication of an opportunity (if the tipping point is desirable). Think of someone under a lot of stress. They lack resilience. They are closer to a tipping point – losing their temper.
• Path dependence – what’s happened in the past determines the future. Ice sheets are frozen because of historic temperatures and won’t refreeze without these temperatures.

Differences between ESTPs and PTPs

These are the key differences between earth system tipping points and positive tipping points:

1. PTPs (usually) involve intentional change. We have to work together to make this happen. If my children are going to learn to brush their teeth regularly, I need to buy them toothpaste and toothbrush, teach them how to do it, motivate them (explain why it’s important and praise them when they do it), remind them until the behaviour becomes engrained. They didn’t wake up one day and just start brushing their teeth twice a day. PTPs are operationalised by enabling conditions (Lenton et al., 2022) and strategic interventions which we’ll discuss in more detail later.
2. Human systems span four different domains(Bernstein and Hoffmann, 2018):
   • Socio-behavioural – social norms, lifestyles, knowledge, values and cultures.
   • Technological – innovation, research and development, adaptation, coordination, and automation of technology.
   • Economic – finance, markets, labour, supply and value chains.
   • Political – law, politics, policy, institutions and governance.
3. Tipping points in human systems have different scales over time and space compared with Earth systems. Think of fast fashion compared with glaciers. Fidget spinners compared with ice sheets.
4. Positive tipping points can be harder to measure as they may need to be measured qualitatively (through words) rather than quantitatively (through numbers).

Positive Tipping Point Domains

(Stadelmann-Steffen et al., 2021; Rockström et al., 2023)

Not All Systems Have Tipping Points

This is a new field of study and there may be areas where it is hard – perhaps impossible – to reach a tipping point. Capital intensive industries or those with powerful vested interests which act as strong dampening feedbacks may be hard to change. For example, steel, chemicals and cement, and avoiding land use conversion (deforestation) may not be good candidates for PTPs to occur (Meldrum et al., 2023). In some areas, there will be strong resistance to attempts to destabilise existing systems/regimes (Kohler et al., 2019). 

A Conceptual Framework for Positive Tipping Points in Human Systems

So we’re trying to move towards a safe and just world. That’s our desired outcome. To do this, we want to trigger positive tipping points. This requires a process across three phases: enabling (getting going), accelerating (speeding up) and stabilising (settling into a new rhythm).

In the first phase – enabling – agents (that’s us!) can encourage tipping points in various ways:

1. Creating enabling conditions.
2. Increasing reinforcing feedbacks – the factors that increase the behaviour.
3. Decreasing dampening feedbacks – overcoming resistance and barriers.
4. Attempting to trigger tipping points.

A key feature of the accelerating phase is that the change is nonlinear – there’s a steep uptake. Think of an epidemic like Covid19 where growth can be exponential – doubling and doubling and doubling.

Let’s look at these ideas in a bit more detail:

Agents

Human agency is our capacity to create change in the world around us, to steer events in a way that suits us (Alsop et al., 2006; O’Brien, 2015). All kinds of different people from different walks of life (policymakers, business leaders, teachers, activists, campaigners, artists, writers, academics, investors, consumers or voters) can act in ways that promote or hinder social change (Newell et al., 2022; Gaupp, forthcoming). Sometimes this is intentional. Sometimes it’s accidental. Sometimes agency stems from one individual’s actions. Sometimes it is a collective action.

Agency is linked to hope. And hope is linked to wellbeing. Learned helplessness is strongly associated with depression – a sense that whatever you do makes no difference. So our belief that we can change things, that we have agency is fundamental to our wellbeing (Bandura, 1999; Feldman and Hart, 2016; Stern, 2018; Bostrom et al., 2019). 

Social movements need about 3.5-10% of the population to create a critical mass and transform social structures (Chenoweth and Stephan, 2011; Xie et al., 2011; Rogers, 2010; Han, 2014; Marshall et al., 2018; Centola et al., 2018; Bolderdijk and Jans 2021; Constantino et al., 2022).

‘Free social spaces’ are really important incubators for social change (Törnberg, 2018). These alternative spaces enable new ideas and practices to be explored. Diversity is key here. Diversity of ideas which typically stems from giving a diverse range of people – those who don’t hold power – a voice, so they challenge dominant agendas and narratives safely (Laybourn-Langton et al., 2021).

Interventions

As the framework above illustrates, there are different ways, we can strategically intervene to encourage positive tipping points (Lenton et al., 2022) during the enabling phase: creating enabling conditions; increasing reinforcing feedbacks and reducing dampening feedbacks; triggering positive tipping points.

Create Enabling Conditions

It’s really easy to overlook the quiet creation of enabling conditions that facilitate a trigger point. The fall of the Berlin Wall is a visible symbol of change. It’s the thing we remember. But this did not happen in vacuum. Other factors created conditions that enabled this to happen. Before a tipping point is triggered, there’s often a concerted effort over a long period of time to generate the enabling conditions for transformative change to take place (Lenton et al., 2022; Otto et al., 2020).

These conditions can be generated by strategically timed and targeted interventions (Mealy et al., 2023). These should focus on the elements that are most sensitive to change.

We often focus on the economic or technological domains but socio-behavioural and political domains can also be effective spaces to create transformative change (Constantino et al., 2022; Schneider and van der Linden, 2023).

Here are a few examples of creating enabling conditions:

• Target smaller populations.
• Provide information.
• Reduce price/cost.
• Improve performance and quality.
• Increase desirability or symbolism.
• Improve accessibility.
• Increase convenience.
• Coordinate complementary technologies.

Increase Reinforcing Feedbacks and Reduce Dampening Feedbacks

Just as in natural systems there are feedback loops which can make change more likely to occur or create resistance making change less likely to occur. For example, economies of scale can mean that a new technology becomes cheaper and so more accessible. Or we might see our friends or neighbours adopt a new technology or behaviour which makes us more likely to do so. There are also powerful vested interests, for example, in the fossil fuel industries, who can exert their influence creating a dampening feedback – a resistance to change.

Here are some specific examples of feedbacks can be manipulated to create enabling conditions for positive tipping points:

• Social contagion – noticing your peers doing something.
• Increasing returns to adoption:
  • Learning by doing
  • Economies of scale
  • Technological reinforcement
• Ecological positive feedbacks.
• Social-ecological positive feedbacks.

Trigger Positive Tipping Points

A trigger is anything that can be causally linked to a tipping point. Perhaps the easiest trigger to spot is a change in law. For example, making it compulsory to wear seatbelts or banning smoking in public places. Remember these types of triggers have been activated because of a very slow process that preceded the trigger. For example, there might have been a campaign from a pressure group that slowly built momentum for its cause or a change from manufacturers to ensure cars are fitted with seatbelts.

For interventions to be most effective they should be executed when the system is close to tipping – ‘sensitive interventions’. Mealy et al., 2023 have created a framework to help decision makers assess and prioritise interventions, which goes into this in more detail.

Here are some examples of triggers:

• Social innovation.
• Technological innovation.
• Ecological intervention.
• Social-ecological technologies.
• Policy intervention and public investment.
• Private investment and markets.
• Public information.
• Behavioural nudges.

Find Out More

This post is based on the latest research compiled by the University of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute Global Tipping Points Report.